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Confidential @ Sia

Top five US bank-holding companies — applied AI investment, FY-2025 → FY-2027

Peer benchmarking analysis
01 · At a glance
The top five US bank-holding companies' applied AI program scales from ~$995M in FY-2025 to ~$2.43B by FY-2027 — a near-doubling into FY-26 bull-scenario execution. Why: a sector-wide step-change AI investment cycle — firms deploying capital ahead of the productivity curve to secure competitive position.
02 · Top five US bank-holding companies — applied AI program
Hero chart · per-firm view
Per-firm applied AI · annual spend
Three bars per firm show annual applied AI spend. The FY-26 bar carries an inline "+$X YoY" callout naming the projected year-over-year increase.
The story: every firm is projecting a material step-up in applied AI spend from FY-25 to FY-26 — ranging from ~$90M (smallest firm) to ~$305M (largest). Median firm step-up: ~$200M.
Bank A Bank A FY-25: ~$315M ~$315M FY-25 Bank A FY-26: ~$615M ~$615M +~$305M YoY FY-26 Bank A FY-27: ~$770M ~$770M FY-27 Bank B Bank B FY-25: ~$235M ~$235M FY-25 Bank B FY-26: ~$455M ~$455M +~$225M YoY FY-26 Bank B FY-27: ~$570M ~$570M FY-27 Bank C Bank C FY-25: ~$195M ~$195M FY-25 Bank C FY-26: ~$390M ~$390M +~$200M YoY FY-26 Bank C FY-27: ~$490M ~$490M FY-27 Bank D Bank D FY-25: ~$160M ~$160M FY-25 Bank D FY-26: ~$305M ~$305M +~$150M YoY FY-26 Bank D FY-27: ~$380M ~$380M FY-27 Bank E Bank E FY-25: ~$100M ~$100M FY-25 Bank E FY-26: ~$185M ~$185M +~$90M YoY FY-26 Bank E FY-27: ~$230M ~$230M FY-27 $0M$500M$1.0B Applied AI spend per year ($)
FY-25 measured FY-26 bull scenario · +$X YoY callout inline FY-27 forward projection (+25% YoY on FY-26)
03 · Sia's read — top-5 cohort AI investment
Sia's read

Every firm in the cohort is projecting a material step-up in applied AI spend from FY-25 to FY-26. The median firm adds ~$200M of net-new AI investment in FY-26; the range runs from ~$90M (smallest step-up) to ~$305M (largest). FY-27 continues on that base at +25% YoY — a moderating, sustainable forward pace anchored to industry-research consensus.

The step-up spread is real signal, not size noise. Bank A's ~$305M net-new (publicly anchored to the largest US bank's disclosed AI program) vs Bank E's ~$90M is a 3.5× spread in incremental AI investment. Competitive intent differs more than balance sheets do.

No firm in or adjacent to this cohort is sitting still. For peers with similar tech-opex scale, the strategic question is where their own step-up lands: tracking near the median, leaning toward the top, or a deliberate selective-build call below the cohort range. Each posture is defensible — but the cohort has moved past wait-and-see.

04 · Methodology
Methodology

Scope (every figure): applied AI spend — software/tools/vendors, FTEs, and contingents. FY-25 measured, FY-26 forecast from Q1-26 actuals, FY-27 forward projection at +25% YoY trend. Cumulative over the three years.

All five firms
Cohort = the five largest US bank-holding companies by FY-25 reported technology & communications expense. Anonymized as Bank A through Bank E. For each: applied AI = (tech & comms expense × software/tools/vendors ratio) + (compensation & benefits × FTE ratio) + (professional services × contingent ratio), with ratios drawn from Sia's proprietary AI intensity library.

Line items reflect each firm's own income-statement labels as reported in its FY-25 10-K. Naming and scope of comparable lines can vary across filers.